DeSart & Holbrook model in Delaware: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 60.4% for Clinton, and 39.6% for Trump in Delaware. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to collect only 58.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in Delaware. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Delaware.