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DeSart & Holbrook model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 49.2% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will end up with 50.8%. In comparison, on October 24, Clinton was predicted to collect only 48.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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