Results of a new national poll carried out by IBD were published. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 19 to October 24, among a random sample of 873 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. On October 23 Clinton obtained only 50.0% in the IBD poll and Trump obtained 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.4%. Compared to numbers in the IBD poll Clinton's poll average is 2.8 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 3.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.