The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.9% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will end up with 45.1%.
In Virginia, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.