Tennessee: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 40.9% of the two-party vote share in Tennessee, while Trump will end up with 59.1%. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to gain 41.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.