South Carolina: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 46.7% for Clinton, and 53.3% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to win 47.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.