Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 53.2% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 46.8%. In comparison, on October 25 Trump was predicted to collect 46.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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