Pennsylvania: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead
The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 53.2% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 46.8%. In comparison, on October 25 Trump was predicted to collect 46.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.