Crosstab model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead
The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 34.3% for Clinton, and 65.8% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to collect 37.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 61.7% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 4.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Kentucky.