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Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.0% for Clinton, and 51.0% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to collect 49.8% of the vote.

In Iowa, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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