Idaho: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 36.4% for Clinton, and 63.7% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to achieve 37.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they often include large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 64.6% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Idaho.