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Crosstab model in California: Clinton is in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 62.6% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will win 37.5%. In comparison, on October 25 Trump was predicted to garner 36.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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