The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 39.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will end up with 60.9%. In comparison, on October 25 Trump was predicted to gain 56.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.9% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.