The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote.
Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.6% and Trump 49.5% of the two-party vote in Iowa. Clinton has 0.8 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.