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Consensus among component methods about election outcome


PollyVote today forecasts a national major-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 54.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 60.3% of the vote.

A trend in favor of Clinton has taken shape in the index models. It has shown an increase of 0.6 percentage points in the last 9 days. Trump has however continuously become more popular in Citizen forecasts, econometric models and expert surveys. Upward trend has remained constant in expert surveys, he was able to win 2.5 percentage points during the past 24 days.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 53.2% in expectation polls is noticeably high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. Back then,expectation polls predicted a vote share of 54.9% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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