CNN released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
CNN poll results
Of those who replied, 51.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out between October 20 and October 23. The sample size was 517 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate large biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the CNN poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.