OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll on October 24. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.