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California: Clinton with huge lead in KABC/SurveyUSA poll

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KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll on October 24. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
56

Clinton

30

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 56.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15. A total of 725 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in California sees Clinton at 62.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.5% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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