KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll on October 24. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who answered the question, 56.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15. A total of 725 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California sees Clinton at 62.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.5% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.