Big-issue model: Clinton is in the lead

The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 50.7% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was predicted to collect 48.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 3.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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