The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 50.7% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was predicted to collect 48.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 3.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.