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Arkansas: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 41.8% for Clinton, and 58.3% for Trump in Arkansas. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to collect only 39.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.2% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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