The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 41.8% for Clinton, and 58.3% for Trump in Arkansas. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to collect only 39.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.2% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.