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Crosstab model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to end up with 49.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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