The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on October 25, Clinton was predicted to end up with 49.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.