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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.9% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.1%. In comparison, on October 24, Clinton was predicted to gain 52.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 50.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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