Results of a new poll conducted by Elway were spread on October 24. The poll asked interviewees from Washington for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 9 and August 13. The sample size was 500 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.5 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they may include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Washington polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 59.1%. This value is 5.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Elway poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 6.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.