Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
Of those who replied, 33.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 19 to October 2 among 1000 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.9 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.