The OregonianThe Oregonian released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
The OregonianThe Oregonian poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 4 and October 14. The sample size was 608 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 55.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Oregon. Relative to her numbers in the The OregonianThe Oregonian poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.