Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 17 to October 19 with 800 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on August 28 Clinton received only 48.3%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 53.4% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.