PPP (D) published the results of a new poll on October 3. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of participants intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 21 and October 22. The sample size was 875 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 51.6% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump. For comparison: Only 51.2% was gained by Clinton in the PPP (D) poll on March 20, for Trump this number was 48.8%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. Compared to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.