On October 24, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
The results show that 54.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 17 among 611 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Siena poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.8% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.