LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 17 and October 23. The sample size was 3024 participants. The sampling error is +/-4.5 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump. On October 21 Clinton received only 50.0% in the LA Times poll and Trump received 50.0%.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the LA Times poll Clinton's poll average is 3.1 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.5 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.