Results of a new poll carried out by KABC/SurveyUSA were circulated on October 24. The poll asked respondents from California for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who answered the question, 56.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15, among a random sample of 725 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California sees Clinton at 62.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.2% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.