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WMUR/UNH*WMUR/UNH* poll in New Hampshire: Trump behind by 15 points

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WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular interest.

WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH poll results
49

Clinton

34

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 17. A total of 770 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 59.0% for Clinton and 41.0% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

If we look at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.3%. Relative to her numbers in the WMUR/UNHWMUR/UNH poll Clinton's poll average is 4.8 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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