Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were spread on October 3. The poll asked participants from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In New Hampshire, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 17 and October 19. The sample size was 900 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.2 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 55.0% for Clinton and 45.0% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Hampshire has Clinton at 54.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.