Results of a new poll administered by Arizona Republic were announced on October 4. The poll asked participants from Arizona for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Arizona Republic poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 15, among a random sample of 0 participants. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 50.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Arizona. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Arizona Republic poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's prediction is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.