On October 6, Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 15 to October 18 with 403 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.9 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Wisconsin polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.8%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin.