Emerson published the results of a new poll on October 19. In this poll, respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 39.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 17 to October 19. A total of 600 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 45.4% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump. To compare: Only 42.0% was obtained by Clinton in the Emerson poll on September 13, for Trump this number was 58.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri sees Trump at 53.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 0.8 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Missouri. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.1 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.