MRG published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
MRG poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 16 and October 19. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 54.8% for Clinton and 45.2% for Trump. On February 27 Clinton obtained only 53.0% in the MRG poll and Trump obtained 47.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 56.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Michigan. Compared to her numbers in the MRG poll Clinton's poll average is 1.7 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.