On October 24, WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
According to the results, 57.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16 among 502 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 64.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.