Results of a new poll administered by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were distributed on October 24. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who responded, 58.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 with 514 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 4.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.