UPI/CVOTER published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 17 to October 23 via Internet. A total of 1414 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.