Louisiana: 20 points lead for Trump in new FOX 8/Mason-Dixon*FOX 8/Mason-Dixon* poll
By FOX 8/Mason-DixonFOX 8/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
FOX 8/Mason-DixonFOX 8/Mason-Dixon poll results
According to the results, 34.0% of respondents will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 54.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 17 and October 19. The sample size was 625 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 38.6% for Clinton and 61.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Trump currently achieves 58.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Louisiana. Compared to his numbers in the FOX 8/Mason-DixonFOX 8/Mason-Dixon poll Trump's poll average is 2.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.9 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.
