On October 19, MPRC (D)MPRC (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 15. A total of 890 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump. On October 9 Clinton obtained only 55.1% in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll and Trump obtained 44.9%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maine. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.