On October 19, Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 20 with 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump. On October 12 Clinton received only 46.7% in the Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications poll and Trump received 53.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Georgia polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 52.2%. This value is 0 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.