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Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead


The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.2%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.3%. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.5 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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