The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.3%. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.5 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.