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Holbrook & DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead


The Holbrook & DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 46.6%. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to collect only 53.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 50.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

The Holbrook & DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook & DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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