Results of a new poll administered by Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Georgia for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC poll results
Of those who responded, 42.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 17 to October 20 with 839 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Georgia sees Trump at 52.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionAJC poll Trump's poll average is 1.1 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Georgia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.