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Florida: Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest CBS News/YouGov poll


CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular importance.

CBS News/YouGov poll results




According to the results, 46.0% of participants indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between October 20 and October 21. The sample size was 1042 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. In the most recent CBS News/YouGov poll on June 24 Clinton obtained 51.8%, while Trump obtained only 48.2%.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.2%. This value is 0.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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