Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were circulated on October 24. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 600 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 66.0% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.