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Consensus among component methods about election outcome


The combined PollyVote currently predicts a national major-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 60.5% of the vote.

Trump has however become the front runner in expert surveys, prediction markets and econometric models. During 23 days had won an additional 2.5 percentage points in expert surveys, making this longest running upward trend.

Compared to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 53.5% in combined polls is particularly high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. Back then,aggregated polls predicted a vote share of 55.3% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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