Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of interviewees intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 1000 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.