Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Colorado for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Colorado, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that 51.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 16. A total of 685 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-3.7 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.0% for Trump. On November 15 Clinton obtained only 43.5% in the Quinnipiac poll and Trump obtained 56.5%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Colorado sees Clinton at 54.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.1% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.