IBD released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
The results show that billionaire Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton can draw on equal levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 18 to October 23 with 815 respondents. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. In the latest IBD poll on October 22 Clinton received only 49.4%, while Trump received 50.6%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 3.7 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% and Trump 45.9% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 4.1 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.